According to the CME’s (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) FedWatch tool ( https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html ), there’s a 74% chance that the US central bank (Federal Reserve, or the Fed) will lower its benchmark interest rate by -0.25% on September 18 and it’s 26% likely that it’ll drop by -0.50%. We can quibble about what’s going to happen in a few weeks, but there’s a 100% probability that rates will begin to fall in less than a month.